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Overview: This paper uses a new panel data set of credit card accounts to analyze credit card delinquency, personal bankruptcy, and the stability of credit risk models. It estimates duration models for default and assess the relative importance of different variables in predicting default. It investigates how the propensity to default has changed over time, disentangling the two leading explanations for the recent increase in default rates - deterioration in the risk - composition of borrowers versus an increase in borrowers' willingness to default due to declines in default costs, including social, information, and legal costs.

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Keywords: credit card debt, Credit Card RIP, Richard Garcia